Weak El Nino conditions expected through Spring

Joseph Dames

6 years ago

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Here we are in March and according to the Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP, El Niño conditions are present. This is what was expected with SST leaning positive.

What is going on?

Well according to the ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions report:

“Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased in the last couple weeks, in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific. Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia. Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.”

Additional information provided:

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.

The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Niño.

What does this mean?

During El Nino spring seasons, it has been observed, that there is sometimes a lack of cooler air aloft because of a more active subtropical jet, compared to the midlatitude jet. That could push us to more ridges and drier conditions or just less activity.