PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – The sea level along the U.S. coastline is expected to rise on average as much over the next 30 years as it has over the last 100 years, according to a recently published report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In the Pacific Northwest, sea levels could rise 4 to 8 inches. While that’s not as significant as the entire country’s average projected sea level rise of 10-12 inches, it’s still a major change and could create dangerous conditions on the Oregon and Washington coast.
“That overall rise in sea level means when we have a combination of events, a particularly high tide and a storm just timed at the wrong time, that means that coastal flooding is just going to be that much more severe,” Washington state climatologist Nick Bond explained.
According to NOAA’s report “Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States,” the sea level rise along the U.S. coasts will vary region to region because of changes in both land and ocean height.
Ice mass loss in Greenland could be one factor that contributes to bigger increases in sea level along the Northwest and Southwest coastal regions, the report said.
As Bond mentioned, flooding is a growing concern around the country within the next 30 years. In the Northwest, a sea level that’s 4 to 8 inches higher might not seem like much, but it could cause much more damage during floods.
Bond said the report points out that the minor flooding events that occur a few times a year on the coast will become more frequent and the moderate to severe floods will come that much more often.
Along the Washington coast, the effects of the increased sea level will vary between the Puget Sound region and the state’s southern coast. Bond said “one size does not fit all” when it comes to determining what the impacts of the sea level will be.
He said geologically, the Puget Sound area is sinking while the Washington coast along the open ocean is rising, which means a sea level rise could be a greater issue for Washington’s northern coastal areas.
Sea levels could have agricultural impacts to Washington cranberry growers, Bond said. He also said rising sea levels have already caused the Quinault Indian Nation in Washington to relocate their village to avoid flooding.
Bond said people should also be aware of other natural events and disasters and how a higher sea level will impact them. During El Niño, when waters in the Pacific Ocean are warmer, water levels are naturally higher.
“So now, you’re really starting to add stuff up. You know, we’re talking a half-a-foot sea level rise, El Nino comes along, they’re still gonna come along another half foot, especially high tide and yeah, now you’re talking trouble,” he said.
Higher water levels could also cause greater damage during a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake or a tsunami on the Pacific Coast.
In the coming years, Bond and his team will closely monitor the higher sea levels during El Niño to help predict the long-term effects of higher water along the coast. He said this research could help determine how coastal communities can deal with sea level rise and be more prepared for it.
In its report, NOAA stresses that reducing emissions could help slow the effects of climate change. NOAA said the greater the emissions, the greater the warming, and the greater the likelihood of higher sea levels.
Bond said humans might not be able to have any immediate impact on global warming in the next few decades, but he said our actions now could determine what happens toward the end of the century.
“So especially for our children and grandchildren, you know, what kind of world they’re gonna have depends on the kinds of things we do in the next few decades,” he said.
Bond said new developments in technology are making sea level projects more accurate than ever. He said researchers like those at the Office of the Washington State Climatologist and the University of Washington will be closely monitoring data as it becomes available to help people in the Pacific Northwest prepare for changes to their environment.