PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – How would you like to be hitting 95 degrees today? That is exactly the boat we were sailing in last year at this time. Yet, it’s all relative, because we are pushing 80 degrees today in Portland and it probably feels warm compared to our other cool spring days.
Weak high pressure is turning us over to warmer air and drier conditions. However, the next few days will have more to the weather story than just that. We will actually have sneaky advection of moisture as the wind focuses out of the southwest for the next 48 hours.
We will break that down in a short-term forecast after we talk about the clouds that have moved in (check out the KOIN Tower photo from mid-day). That is a clear sign of that moisture filling the atmosphere.
Those clouds are going to be more than just a cover for shade, they’re also going to inhibit our temperatures a few degrees for the afternoon. So we aren’t considering 90-degrees in the forecast today. We need to accomplish our first 80-degree day of the year still!
The filtered sunshine that we are bringing in right now may be just enough to get us there. If those clouds thicken up anymore in the next few hours — which may happen — we will probably hold in the upper 70s.
You don’t win a special award for hitting 80-degrees, so it’s not that big of a deal. In fact, preventing that warm energy from the sun may actually help us stay dry today.
The moisture that is finding a way in, will be used for shower development and even the potential for some thunderstorms. That threat is more so for the higher terrain this afternoon. That is because the mountains will help with the process.
The slideshow below has multiple images of the thunderstorm potential for the next few days. Thursday is expected to be more active and dynamic than the forecast this afternoon. Both days may feel a bit humid because of that moisture we are tapping into.
The futurecast is showing the bubbling up of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. These storms are going to support hail and lightning, which is something to plan for now. You can see that they will impact areas of Jefferson and Wasco counties. The tracking appears to push these storms to the northeast into Umatilla county as well.
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
This may be a pattern this month, as the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is projected to be on the wetter than normal side for June. This, again, favors the pattern of a La Niña setup, which we will carry through the summer. That typically means more dry conditions to the southwest.
We are tracking a soaker or two for the weekend, which would be a great start to the month of June. Why? We still need as much moisture as we can get for the drought that impacts most of Oregon.
If you use the slider option below, you can see both the temperature and precipitation outlook for the month of June. This is provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). If we happen to have more rain, the likelihood of being cooler is also attached to the monthly outcome.
SUMMER AVERAGE / LOOK BACK
Last year, we did have our fair share of June showers. We didn’t have much to say about July or August. Overall, the summer was dry. Portland collected 1.30 inches of rain for the three-month period of meteorological summer. That is below the average of 2.67 inches. This is historically the time that we are the driest in the PNW.
We are expecting rain this weekend, which may be enough to springboard the Willamette Valley into a good position to start summer. But again, that doesn’t promise much for the rest of the state. The rainmakers this weekend may carry enough moisture to help central and southern Oregon out too. We will keep monitoring that system as we approach the weekend.
Weather data is projecting upwards to 1-1.5 inches of rain for the northern valley by Sunday night. We know that this time of the year can really change quickly.
We keep a positive outlook for more water to stall out the wildfire season locally.
