PORTLAND, Ore. (Portland Tribune) — Homicides and shootings in Portland dropped dramatically during the first two months of 2023 compared to the same period last year, and compared to the most recent figures released by the Portland Police Bureau.
According to the police, nine people were killed in Portland in January and February of this year, most by shootings. That compares to 19 during the first two months of 2022 — a 53% decrease.
Police responded to 160 shootings in the first two months of 2023. That compares to 245 in the same period last year — a 35% decrease.
The only figure that did not change was the number of non-fatal shooting injuries. There were 44 in January and February 2023 compared to 44 in the same period last year.
The decreases are a welcome trend, especially if it continues through the year. There were 94 homicides in 2022, the most ever recorded in Portland. There were 1,306 total shootings last year, a slight decrease from the 1,315 in 2021 but significantly more that the 916 in 2020.
It is unclear why homicides and shootings have fallen so much. Although the bureau has hired additional officers in recent months to address a staffing shortage, most are still being trained and have not been deployed.
The unexpectedly severe winter storm that shut down most of the city the last week of February was not much of a factor, either. The numbers for January 2023 were already way down compared to the previous year. According to police, there were five homicides in January of this year compared to nine in the same month last year. There were 95 shootings in January 2023 compared to 127 in the same month last year.
Research leads to more arrests, gun seizures
One factor could be a change in how East Precinct patrol officers identify potentially stolen vehicles that should be stopped. According to the bureau, officers on Stolen Vehicle Operations missions worked with an Oregon Health & Sciences University researcher to improve their perceived reasons for stopping occupied vehicles they suspect are stolen. The result has been fewer stops but more recovered stolen vehicles, more arrests of car theft suspects, and more seizures of illegal firearms.
According to the bureau, East Precinct officers have conducted such mission for the part 18 months. After their first five missions over a four-month period, the officers recognized room for improvement. To address this, they began collecting and analyzing characteristics of the vehicles they were stopping, including both vehicles that were found to be stolen and those that were not. The research led to the collection of multiple data points that could then be analyzed.
The bureau then approached Dr. Jeffrey W. Tyner, Ph.D., a scientist and professor at the OHSU Knight Cancer Institute, School of Medicine. He and his team agreed to review both the data and methodology, then provided valuable peer review and ideas used to improve the process.
The unique collaboration with OHSU dramatically increased the team’s success, the bureau said. In the non-evidence-based practice missions conducted by the SVO team, only one in every 31 vehicles stopped was occupied stolen, and the arrest ratio was one in every six, with a gun being found in one out of every 144 vehicles being stopped.
But in the missions conducted after the evidence-based practices were applied, the number of stops decreased, but the likelihood of finding a stolen vehicle being actively driven greatly increased. According to the bureau, now one in every six vehicles stopped by the team is a stolen, someone is arrested once in every three stops, and a gun is found in one out of every twenty-six stops.
“East Precinct officers, sergeants and lieutenants noticed a need in the community to combat stolen vehicle theft and their use in additional crimes in our precinct,” East Precinct Commander Erica Hurley said. “Together they created these remarkable stolen vehicle missions that went from good to great with the use of data driven-policing. This is an example of the dedicated hard work and creative problem solving from East Precinct officers.”
The Portland Tribune is a KOIN 6 News media partner.